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💬 Kosovo are very hard to beat at home, and that is the heart of this pick. They have let in just three goals across their eight home games, winning five of them. Austria are a different team away from Vienna. Their road record reads 3 wins, 2 ties and 4 losses, and they score just over a goal a game on their travels. At home they score more than 3 a game, and that is where their big numbers come from. Austria's last two results flattered them as well. They scored five goals between the 3-1 against Kosovo and the 2-2 in Dublin without creating much. Both attacks are short for this one. Vedat Muriqi missed Kosovo's 0-0 in Israel with a muscle injury and is a doubt, and Austria look likely to be without Michael Gregoritsch and his ankle problem. Kosovo sit three points behind Austria with a promotion play-off place at stake. They will set up to make Pristina awkward rather than chase the game, which suits us. A tight 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that is enough here. The risk is the obvious one. Austria won the meeting in Vienna 3-1 only a week ago, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 16 games. If they click again, Kosovo have to score to stay in it. We are still backing the hosts to hold them.

💬 Ceuta cannot defend away from home, and Castellon arrive on five straight wins. Ceuta have let in three or more goals in each of their last three away league games. They lost 1-3 at Burgos, 0-3 at Mallorca and 1-5 at FC Andorra. They let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. Castellon have won 8, tied 4 and lost 2 of their last 14. They score more than a goal a game and let in under one, and they have not lost by 2 or more in any of those 14 games. Ceuta have won 4, tied 5 and lost 6 of their last 15. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 6 of them, and they let in almost 2 goals a game. That gap is what this pick is built on. Castellon should be in front before the hour against a defense this open. A 2-0 Castellon win is the likeliest finish. That is the shape we want, and a third goal would make it comfortable. Two things give us pause. Castellon are missing six senior players. Vlak and Brignani are hurt, Mellot is banned and three more are away with their countries. The team that starts is hard to call. Their home form is the weaker half of their season as well, and these two tied three of their last four meetings. We still back Castellon to win this clearly.

💬 The history between these two says one goal decides it. Four of the last five meetings finished 1-0 or 2-1, and the last seven averaged just over 2 goals in total. Valladolid are the main reason to expect another quiet night. They have not won any of their last eight away games, where they score under a goal a game and let in more than one. Only 4 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average 2 goals in total. Las Palmas are not built to blow a game open either. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 15. They have also lost three of their last five, including a 1-2 home loss to Burgos, and they were held 0-0 at home by Leganes last month. Neither side scores enough to turn this into a busy evening. A 1-0 Las Palmas win is the likeliest finish, and one goal keeps this well on the right side. The risk sits with the hosts. 9 of Las Palmas's last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and they have been in a 2-3, a 1-2 and a 2-5 in their last six. Valladolid beat Cordoba 3-1 last time out, so they can score when a game opens up. We still expect a flat, low-scoring night.

💬 Greece have already done this job once. They won 1-0 in Germany on 27 September and now lead the group with 7 points from 3 games, three clear of tonight's visitors. That was not a one off. Greece have lost by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 14 games, and they have scored in all three group games. Germany have the better players, but their away version has been blunt. They have managed only 1 goal a game across their last 5 away trips, and they are missing Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala. Thessaloniki will be loud, and Greece will drop deep and ask Germany to solve the same puzzle again. Expect Germany to keep the ball and push up, then run into bodies. A scrappy 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that shape suits us fine. The warnings here are real. Germany sit third on 4 points, which is the relegation play-off place, so they have to win and they will take risks to do it. Greece also let in nearly 2 goals a game on this ground, which is softer than they are away from home. We are still happy to back Greece to stay with them.